Starlink’s next challenge is wireless, analyst says

Industry analyst Jeff Kagan says SpaceX’s Starlink could become a serious competitor to AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon as satellite connectivity expands beyond broadband. The shift could reshape wireless coverage, partnerships and competition over the next several years, especially in hard-to-reach areas.

Why it matters: - Starlink’s expansion could pressure traditional wireless and broadband providers at the same time. - The biggest impact would likely be in areas where terrestrial networks are weak or expensive to build. - The outcome could affect carriers, MVNOs, investors, employees and customers across the communications market.

What happened: - Industry analyst Jeff Kagan said SpaceX’s Starlink raises a central question for communications companies: can satellite service become a major competitor to AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon. - Kagan said the wireless industry is in another period of transformation as satellite connectivity expands beyond broadband. - Starlink already competes with cable and telephone broadband providers through its satellite Internet service. - Kagan said the competitive shift is likely to unfold over several years, not overnight.

The details: - The U.S. wireless market is led by AT&T Mobility, T-Mobile and Verizon Wireless. - MVNOs including Xfinity Mobile, Spectrum Mobile, Optimum Mobile, Cox Mobile, Consumer Cellular, Cricket Wireless and PureTalk resell service on those national networks. - Starlink uses a low-Earth orbit satellite network, which gives it a different architecture from traditional terrestrial wireless systems. - Satellite service offers advantages in underserved and remote areas. - Satellite connectivity can be limited indoors, under heavy tree cover and inside large buildings. - Kagan said those limitations must improve before satellite can replace traditional wireless networks in every situation. - Kagan said Starlink could eventually gain a bigger role by combining satellite connectivity with advances in AI, broadband and next-generation networking. - Kagan said strategic partnerships between satellite and wireless carriers are possible. - Such partnerships could help close coverage gaps and give wireless carriers access to satellite connectivity.

Between the lines: - This is less about an immediate knockout and more about a slow competitive broadening of the market. - Traditional carriers still have scale, mature networks and ongoing upgrades on their side. - Starlink’s threat is strongest where coverage is poor, not where dense urban wireless networks already perform well. - The situation resembles earlier convergence across wireless, telephone and cable television, when separate industries began competing directly.

What's next: - Watch for possible carrier partnerships that blend satellite and terrestrial coverage. - Expect continued competition as both wireless and satellite technologies improve. - The next few years could produce clear winners and losers as providers adapt to the new landscape.

The bottom line: - Starlink is no longer just a broadband story. - Its next test is whether satellite can become a meaningful force in wireless communications too.